Campaigns and Elections,Edge Messaging,Public Policy

MU Law Poll Analysis

18 Sep , 2018  

It is not time to panic, but don’t kid yourself, all is not well.

 

Parental obligations and client meetings this afternoon preclude me from the usual Marquette University rapid reaction video.  But after getting grief from folks (who knew you cared?), I will take a minute to offer a brief perspective on the results.

Biggest takeaway is that while Republicans should not panic, many need to adapt and overcome. Three big things: 1, the Right Direction/Wrong Track numbers have a bad trajectory 2, there is a growing enthusiasm gap with Democrats more jazzed about the election than GOPers. And, 3, Despite six months of record unemployment in Wisconsin and a whole host of other good news, the mood of the electorate here is mirroring that of the national polls. That is, the traditional mid-term hangover for the party in power has emerged.

The question remains, of course, will things get better or worse over the next 49 days.

Leah Vukmir is clearly feeling the after effects of a bruising primary, one that pushed her so far to the right it pushed moderates and independents into Baldwin’s camp. The National Club For Growth strikes again!

Governor Walker, as he himself predicted, is now behind Evers. The Evers campaign received a post-primary boost and the Governor is suffering the triple whammy of mid-term funk, voters having 2-term incumbent fatigue, and a complacency that often accompanies prosperity (The public doesn’t clamor for tax cuts when the economy is booming; in fact, they are more willing to tolerate the increased social services spending that Democrats promise).

Polls are only a snapshot in time and a lot can happen in 49 days. But there isn’t a moment to waste, it is time kick it into gear.  However, the problem with bad poll numbers is that they can impact donor and grassroots enthusiasm. Republicans up and down the ballot need to prevent that, first and foremost.

And, a bit about the President. This poll is not all about him. Generally, President Trump’s positives do not seep down the ballot, but his negatives always have. That has never been so evident in Wisconsin as it is in this poll. His unpopularity with college educated white women and independents is really hurting both Vukmir and Walker. (And, I suspect legislative Republicans may be seeing the same impact on their polling, by the way). No candidate will write off that demographic, and they do have good things to talk to them about, if they so choose. They need to!

In fact, in many policy areas the GOP candidates have great stories to tell all of Wisconsin. They need to find the right storytellers, and the undecided / leaning ears willing to give them a listen.

The Wisconsin GOP’s fate is in their own hands. They are not tied to the fortunes or misfortunes of President Trump. But the grassroots and the donors need to step up. As do the candidates. County party and regional offices need to start humming 14 hours a day. Callers need to call. Lit droppers need to drop. Donors need to donate. Leaders need to lead. It’s going to be a grind. So be it.

Oh, as for my client Brad Schimel? Well, his take on his favorable numbers can be found, here.
MU Law School Poll September results, here.

Campaigns and Elections

EdgeCast 08-22-18 – Marquette University Law School Poll

22 Aug , 2018  

Brian and Dan discuss the latest Marquette University Law School Poll results.

 

Edgecast-08-22-18 from Edge Messaging on Vimeo.

Fraley

The 9er – Episode 53 – 08.20.18

20 Aug , 2018  

It’s our last 9er for a couple of weeks because Dan is on vacation next week, and Brian is being uncharacteristically decent giving the office the day off for Labor Day.

In this episode, we learn chat about “The mom uniform”, new changes (that you won’t like) coming to Netflix, mini-horses on planes, and Brian’s new obsession with “Live PD”.

 

See you in a couple of weeks!

Check out this episode!

Fraley

The 9er – Episode 51 – 07.30.18

30 Jul , 2018  

It’s Episode 51 of The 9er with Dan, Lisa, and Brian. Stupid social media idiots FORCE us to defend Cub fans, Planet Fitness LIES, and Lisa tells us about “Menstrual Equality laws”. Those, plus 6 more topics and that makes the 9er. You think you hate it now… just wait ’till you hear it!

Check out this episode!

Fraley

The 9er – Episode 50 – 07.23.18

23 Jul , 2018  

It’s Episode 50 of The 9er!!

Today, Lisa tells us about the time she punched a guy in the face.  Dan has a seemingly unwarranted hatred of people that use chopsticks in an Asian restaurant.  Brian has never been to EAA.  And the gang discuss Josh Hader’s tweets.  Those, plus four more topics on today’s 9er.

Check out this episode!

Campaigns and Elections,Edge Messaging,Podcast,Public Policy

What we learned from the July Marquette University Law School Poll?

18 Jul , 2018  

Dan Deibert and I discuss the findings from the latest Marquette University Law School Poll, which were released this afternoon.

 

 

Here are the top-line numbers. The cross tabs can be found here.

This will be the last poll before the primary, which is less than 4 weeks away (August 14).

 

 

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Fraley

The 9er – Episode 48 – 07.09.18

9 Jul , 2018  

Dan, Brian, and Lisa “discuss” 9 topics from the past week. Including George Webb Waitresses packing heat, California actually passing a decent law for a change, and Brian tells us how Jesus has been snubbed. (This is NOT a religious topic, btw)

Check out this episode!

Fraley

The 9er – Episode 47 – 07.02.18

2 Jul , 2018  

France! Australia! Spain! Columbia County, Wisconsin! It’s the international topics edition of The 9er!

Check out this episode!

Fraley

The 9er – Episode 46 – 06.25.18

25 Jun , 2018  

The Monday morning, fairly pointless podcast, created by Edge Messaging.  Today, we discuss why nobody is going to see comedy movies.  We discuss the World Cup with some expert-level knowledge and chat about the Supreme Court ruining your online purchasing experience. 

Check out this episode!

Campaigns and Elections

Analyzing the June 2018 MU Law School Poll

20 Jun , 2018  

The latest Marquette University Law School Poll is out, and we’re talking numbers, trends and outliers in this quick video podcast. Talk of a Blue Wave hitting Wisconsin is a bit premature, and while results of this poll are mixed, overall both Scott Walker and Tammy Baldwin have more reasons to like them than fear them. Details, here:

EdgeCast 06.20.18 Marquette Law School Poll Results from Edge Messaging on Vimeo.

 

Click here for the top-line results.

Here are the cross tabs.

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