Campaigns and Elections,Edge Messaging,Public Policy
Parental obligations and client meetings this afternoon preclude me from the usual Marquette University rapid reaction video. But after getting grief from folks (who knew you cared?), I will take a minute to offer a brief perspective on the results.
Biggest takeaway is that while Republicans should not panic, many need to adapt and overcome. Three big things: 1, the Right Direction/Wrong Track numbers have a bad trajectory 2, there is a growing enthusiasm gap with Democrats more jazzed about the election than GOPers. And, 3, Despite six months of record unemployment in Wisconsin and a whole host of other good news, the mood of the electorate here is mirroring that of the national polls. That is, the traditional mid-term hangover for the party in power has emerged.
The question remains, of course, will things get better or worse over the next 49 days.
Leah Vukmir is clearly feeling the after effects of a bruising primary, one that pushed her so far to the right it pushed moderates and independents into Baldwin’s camp. The National Club For Growth strikes again!
Governor Walker, as he himself predicted, is now behind Evers. The Evers campaign received a post-primary boost and the Governor is suffering the triple whammy of mid-term funk, voters having 2-term incumbent fatigue, and a complacency that often accompanies prosperity (The public doesn’t clamor for tax cuts when the economy is booming; in fact, they are more willing to tolerate the increased social services spending that Democrats promise).
Polls are only a snapshot in time and a lot can happen in 49 days. But there isn’t a moment to waste, it is time kick it into gear. However, the problem with bad poll numbers is that they can impact donor and grassroots enthusiasm. Republicans up and down the ballot need to prevent that, first and foremost.
And, a bit about the President. This poll is not all about him. Generally, President Trump’s positives do not seep down the ballot, but his negatives always have. That has never been so evident in Wisconsin as it is in this poll. His unpopularity with college educated white women and independents is really hurting both Vukmir and Walker. (And, I suspect legislative Republicans may be seeing the same impact on their polling, by the way). No candidate will write off that demographic, and they do have good things to talk to them about, if they so choose. They need to!
In fact, in many policy areas the GOP candidates have great stories to tell all of Wisconsin. They need to find the right storytellers, and the undecided / leaning ears willing to give them a listen.
The Wisconsin GOP’s fate is in their own hands. They are not tied to the fortunes or misfortunes of President Trump. But the grassroots and the donors need to step up. As do the candidates. County party and regional offices need to start humming 14 hours a day. Callers need to call. Lit droppers need to drop. Donors need to donate. Leaders need to lead. It’s going to be a grind. So be it.
Campaigns and Elections,Edge Messaging,Podcast,Public Policy
Dan Deibert and I discuss the findings from the latest Marquette University Law School Poll, which were released this afternoon.
Here are the top-line numbers. The cross tabs can be found here.
This will be the last poll before the primary, which is less than 4 weeks away (August 14).
Brian Fraley, Campaigns and Elections, Donald Trump, edge messaging, Elections, Foxconn, Kevin Nicholson, Leah Vukmir, Scott Walker, Tammy Baldwin, Tony Evers, Wisconsin, Wisconsin Primary
Edge Messaging,Half Hour Happy Hour,Podcast,Public Policy
In his most extensive interview since leaving 620 WTMJ in Milwaukee, conservative author and pundit Charlie Sykes sat down with me for the latest episode of Outside the Bubble.
Now a fixture on national news programs, including MSNBC, Sykes reflects on his first year away from his Milwaukee radio talk show and reacts to his numerous, and vocal, critics.
Daiytakes Show,Fraley,Half Hour Happy Hour
OTB-Hogs For Heroes from Edge Messaging on Vimeo.
[BROOKFIELD, WISC…] On a special episode of Outside the Bubble, Edge Messaging’s Brian Fraley talks with Kevin Thompson of Hogs for Heroes and veterans Scott Kruchten and Brian Kvitek, who both received motorcycles courtesy of this unique charity.
“We’re a local, Wisconsin, non-profit, we support and are dedicated to healing the wounds of injured Wisconsin veterans,” said Thompson. “Our mission is a little different though, we raise money to purchase Harley-Davidsons for injured Wisconsin vets to help their healing and honor all veterans, get them back on the road and in the community.”
Campaigns and Elections,Edge Messaging,Public Policy
The new Marquette University Law School poll out today had some interesting results. I broke it all down during a Facebook Live including the findings on Foxconn, President Trump, Governor Walker, Senator Baldwin and more.
Dailytakes On Air,Edge Messaging,Half Hour Happy Hour
I had the pleasure of interviewing Milwaukee radio host Dan O’Donnell for this week’s show. I got his take on a number of subjects including Governor Walker’s re-election bid, optimism in the Trump Era and whether #FakeNews is a real thing.
Watch the episode here.
Lowering the drinking age to 19, special DNR licenses for militrary veterans and more is on tap in this week’s episode of The Wheelercast. Plus, Gwyn launches her series on Women in the Capitol with an interview with State Senator Alberta Darling.
Mining moratorium repeal. The Foxconn contract. Restructuring of Assembly Ways and Means Committee. This week’s episode is jammed packed with news from the State Capitol, including Gwyn Guenther’s interview with Rep. John Macco.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker formally announced his re-election campaign on Sunday. What are his prospects for victory? What are his strengths and vulnerabilities and who is his likely opponent? We chat about it over a pot of coffee and a couple of barking dogs in a weekend Edge Messaging chat.
A jam-packed episode this week, with developments on the Foxconn deal, the State Budget and a new legislative initiative that will likely stir some decades-old passions. Gwyn breaks it down for us on The Wheelercast.